Media Mention: Council President Interview about the 2024 Taiwan Elections

January 11, 2024

Screenshot of Rupert on Zooming In with Simone Gao

USTBC President interview about the 2024 Taiwan Elections on “Zooming In with Simone Gao,” January 11, 2024. [YouTube Screenshot]

US-Taiwan Business Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers appeared on “Zooming In with Simone Gao” on January 11, 2024. He talked about the key issues surrounding the 2024 Taiwan Presidential and Legislative elections and the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the eve of this historic event.

As the election looks right now, about 8 or 9 days out, Lai Ching-te is maintaining his sort of 4-5-point lead over Hou You-yi. If we accept – for the purposes of our discussion this afternoon -that Lai Ching-te is, in fact, able to secure the presidency by a small margin, I don’t think China’s going to be happy about that.

[But] I don’t think it moves us closer to war. I think the Chinese have a strategy and an approach of which the military coercive angle is an important part, but it is certainly not the only part… I believe that the Chinese are going to continue to inject some patience because in the end, they believe they can absorb Taiwan without the high level of risk involved in a kinetic attack on the island.

I think the action of last resort for the Chinese Communist Party, Simone, is a full-scale D-Day style attack. [Because] the risks are so high, it isn’t just about defeat. I mean, even if there were a stalemate in the Taiwan Strait, I think it’s a near certainty that the U.S. and Japan would be immediately involved in the battle. So China would be fighting Taiwan, Japan and the United States, probably with support from the Australians, the British and maybe some other countries around the world too. But I think quickly we would be dealing with a situation like that.

But I think the possibility of a kinetic attack to resolve the differences between Beijing and Taipei is, let’s say, less than 10%. And for me, that’s pretty much close to zero at the moment. Over the next, let’s say, 3 to 5 years, I think we can possibly see, though, if there is an uptick, the Chinese can use their military in other ways short of a kinetic conflict. That would be highly problematic for the United States, Taiwan, Japan and others to deal with.

Source: Zooming In with Simone Gao – This Is Not a War or Peace Choice

Related Media

Screenshot of Rupert talking Taiwan with CNN International
August 3, 2022 USTBC in the Press

Media Mention: Council President talks about Taiwan on CNN International

US-Taiwan Business Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers appeared on First Move with Julia Chatterley on CNN International on August 3, 2022. He talked about the visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and the potential economic and political implications of tensions in the Taiwan Strait for U.S. businesses. Most technology companies at some level are […]

Rupert on NTD Business
August 28, 2020 USTBC in the Press

Media Mention: Council President on NTD Business

Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers (@RJHCUSTBC) appeared on NTD Business on August 28, 2020. He talked about the unilateral move by Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen to loosen restrictions on U.S. meat imports, and the impact this important policy change could have on U.S. businesses, as well as the improved prospects for a U.S.-Taiwan Bilateral Trade Agreement […]

Rupert Hammond-Chambers on CNBC Squawk Box
May 11, 2020 USTBC in the Press

Media Mention: Council President on CNBC Squawk Box

Council President Rupert Hammond-Chambers (@RJHCUSTBC) appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on May 11, 2020. He talked about Taiwan and the global chip supply chain. Mr. Hammond-Chambers said that it’s worth watching how active the United States will be in using the semiconductor industry to reinforce its national security.  Washington could leverage semiconductor equipment exports to determine […]